The Bitcoin four-year cycle has long been the guiding principle for crypto traders. Driven by Bitcoin’s halving mechanism, it produced a predictable rhythm: a dramatic price surge, a crushing downturn, and then a fresh rally. For over a decade, this pattern defined how investors navigated the volatile world of digital assets. But in 2025, leading analysts warn that the cycle may no longer hold.
Tom Lee: Institutional buyers are rewriting Bitcoin history
Tom Lee, Fundstrat’s Chief Investment Officer and Chairman of Bitmine, recently explained that institutional inflows are changing Bitcoin’s behavior. In an interview with Mario Nawfal, he noted that 2024 marked a turning point as corporate buyers and ETF launches funneled consistent capital into the market. Unlike retail-driven demand spikes of the past, institutional flows are steady and counter-cyclical, reducing the impact of the halving.
Lee warned that the crypto market faces two tests: whether Bitcoin will follow its historical downward trajectory after halving, or whether it will decouple from equity markets. If both scenarios hold, the Bitcoin four-year cycle could become obsolete.
Why the halving matters less today
The halving event, which reduces miner rewards by 50% every four years, once created massive supply shocks. In Bitcoin’s early years, this scarcity narrative fueled speculative surges. However, with more than 95% of Bitcoin already mined, the supply shock is no longer as powerful.
Pierre Rochard, CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, argued that the cycle is losing relevance. Jason Dussault, CEO of Intellistake.ai, added that institutional products like ETFs, global liquidity conditions, and macroeconomic trends now play as big a role as halving events. “Bitcoin increasingly responds to the same factors affecting equities, bonds, and commodities,” he explained.
A market aligned with Wall Street
Other analysts echo this sentiment. Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, suggested that the Bitcoin four-year cycle is breaking down in favor of extended, more sustainable growth. He pointed to the July passage of the GENIUS Act, which opened the door for Wall Street to create crypto-focused financial products. For Hougan, institutional adoption could anchor Bitcoin in broader capital markets, tying it more closely to trends affecting stocks like Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and other equities.
Glassnode: The cycle is still intact
Not everyone agrees with this thesis. Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode argues that the Bitcoin four-year cycle remains structurally intact. Their research shows that Bitcoin’s current cycle maturity mirrors previous ones, with long-term holder profit-taking behavior resembling patterns seen between 2015–2018 and 2018–2022.
Connor Howe, CEO of Enso, also contends that the halving’s role is weakened but not eliminated. He stressed that it still matters for miner economics and scarcity narratives, even if traders cannot rely on the old rigid timeline.
Price action and investor sentiment
At press time, Bitcoin traded around $112,150 after dipping to weekend lows near $109,977. This pullback has dampened bullish momentum, with investor polls suggesting nearly 70% of respondents expect a decline to $105,000 before any chance of a rally.
The tension between institutional inflows and traditional cycle dynamics leaves traders divided. If Bitcoin breaks free from the four-year rhythm, it could enter a new era of correlation with equities and bonds. If not, history may once again repeat itself with another dramatic peak followed by a long correction.
The bottom line
The Bitcoin four-year cycle has guided investors for over a decade, but its future is uncertain. Analysts like Tom Lee argue that institutional buyers and ETF-driven capital flows are rewriting the rules, while firms like Glassnode maintain the cycle remains intact.
For investors, the takeaway is clear: Bitcoin is no longer just a retail-driven, halving-based asset. Its performance increasingly depends on institutional adoption, macroeconomic conditions, and global liquidity trends. Whether the cycle survives or fades, Bitcoin is now firmly part of the broader financial system.
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